It happened in the US, then in Brazil. By Sunday night, another of the world’s strongman leaders could be defeated at the ballot box.
Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been in power in one form or another for 20 years, a tenure that’s outlasted three US presidents and twice as many Australian prime ministers, two global recessions and an attempted military coup.
Until now, a Türkiye ruled by anyone else has seemed almost unimaginable, so entrenched has Mr Erdoğan’s reign been.
A generation of Turks has come of age knowing no other leader.
But when voters cast their ballots in Sunday’s presidential election, many feel they will not only be deciding on who will govern for the next five years, but on the survival of their democracy.
“This election really is the end of the road,” said Professor Murat Somer from Koç University in Istanbul.
“There are two very clear options that are like day and night.”
From its origins more than 100 years ago as a modern democratic republic born from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire, Türkiye could redefine itself at the turn of its second century.
If Mr Erdoğan wins an unprecedented third term, his critics fear Türkiye will continue down a path of spiralling authoritarianism.
Could this be the end of Erdoğan’s two-decade reign?
Since coming to office in 2003, the 69-year-old has criminalised dissent, tightened control of the press, rolled back freedoms, presided over skyrocketing inflation and consolidated vast powers in the presidency.
After the last election in 2017, a referendum allowed sweeping changes to the constitution that abolished the prime minister’s position and gave the president full control over government, including legislative and judicial powers.
Last year, US-based democracy watchdog Freedom House gave Türkiye a global freedom score of 32/100 — not free — citing concerns over the constitutional court’s decision to shut down the country’s second-largest opposition party, Mr Erdoğan’s unilateral withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention on gender-based violence, and wide-ranging crackdowns on critics of the government.
Human Rights Watch issued a report this week warning of the “vast arsenal of digital censorship tools” used to silence dissenting views online, detailing the prosecutions of thousands of journalists and political opponents in recent years.
Like other strongmen, Mr Erdoğan has built a narrative that paints him as Türkiye’s lone protector, defending the country from the erstwhile destructive forces of liberalism and the West.
“My party has never been pro-LGBT and never will be,” he bellowed to a rapturous crowd of thousands at a recent rally on an Istanbul airport runway.
His supporters say he has been a transformative leader whose early investment in industry and infrastructure has made Türkiye strong enough to stand on its own in a turbulent region straddling two continents and myriad competing interests.
“Erdoğan is a world leader. We’re glad to have him!” said Nesrin Akyuz, a volunteer for Mr Erdoğan’s Justice and Development party handing out election pamphlets in the waterside Üsküdar neighbourhood of Istanbul.
For many, Mr Erdoğan’s time at the helm has coincided with the removal of restrictions around religion, fuelling much of his support.
In 2013, a ban on women wearing headscarves in tertiary education was lifted, one of the most controversial political issues in secularist Turkish society.
But even the president’s most ardent supporters in his traditional religious base appear to be having doubts.
For the first time in many years, it appears Mr Erdoğan’s political career could soon be over.
Several major polls suggest his popularity ahead of Sunday’s vote has been surpassed by his main challenger, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
A survey by Konda on May 6-7 put support for the president at 43.7 per cent compared to his rival’s 49.3 per cent.
A softly spoken former public servant, Mr Kılıçdaroğlu rose to prominence as the candidate for a motley coalition of opposition parties united by a shared ambition to unseat Mr Erdoğan.
The surprise exit from the race of another key candidate on Thursday afternoon will likely push his vote share even higher, possibly allowing him to garner more than the 50 per cent of the ballots needed to avoid a run-off vote later in the month.
If he wins on Sunday, Mr Kılıçdaroğlu has vowed to repair Türkiye’s eroded democracy and reverse some of Mr Erdoğan’s unorthodox policies that most economists blame for the country’s inflation crisis.
“We will bring democracy, enlightenment, abundance and peace to this country,” he told a rally of his supporters last weekend.
Mr Kılıçdaroğlu’s followers see the election as the last opportunity to reverse the country’s fortunes before its fate is sealed forever, said Berk Esen, a political scientist from Sabancı University.
“This is probably the most critical election that Türkiye had at least in a generation, maybe even longer,” Dr Esen said.
“So if Erdoğan is going to lose an election, this is the time.”
Erdoğan’s earthquake response could be a deciding factor
One dynamic that could sway the election is the fallout from the enormous earthquakes that levelled towns and cities across the southern part of the country in February.
Mr Erdoğan’s government faces accusations of corruption and mismanagement that contributed to more than 50,000 people being killed and millions displaced.
Experts have pointed to poor construction codes that failed to meet modern earthquake engineering standards and a lax approach to ensuring buildings met safety requirements.
Observers predict the fallout from the earthquakes could turn large swathes of the electorate against the president – even if his opponent, Mr Kılıçdaroğlu, has so far resisted using the government’s handling of the disaster as a line of attack on the campaign trail.
“That really surprises me,” Dr Esen said.
“And so it’s really difficult to tell how the earthquake is going to affect the government’s vote share.”
Observers predict the fallout from the earthquakes could turn large swathes of the electorate against the president – even if his opponent, Mr Kılıçdaroğlu, has so far resisted using the government’s handling of the disaster as a line of attack on the campaign trail.
“That really surprises me,” Dr Esen said.
“And so it’s really difficult to tell how the earthquake is going to affect the government’s vote share.”
Source : ABC Net
